The most recent Covid-19 outbreak in Taiwan is a lesson {that a} containment technique aiming for zero native transmission might not be sustainable in the long run, a public well being professor mentioned Tuesday.
Earlier than the latest explosion in instances, Taiwan had reported only a few Covid infections for greater than a 12 months — and most have been imported. That allowed every day actions to proceed largely as regular and received the island worldwide reward for its containment measures.
However that left Taiwan “utterly vulnerable” to new variants of the coronavirus which might be extra transmissible and probably extra extreme, mentioned Benjamin Cowling, professor and head of the epidemiology and biostatistics division at The College of Hong Kong’s College of Public Well being.
“Most likely lower than 1% of their inhabitants have had pure an infection and subsequently pure immunity, and … lower than 1% have been vaccinated — so that they’re virtually utterly vulnerable,” Cowling informed CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia.”
Taiwan, with a inhabitants of roughly 24 million, has reported greater than 8,500 confirmed Covid instances and 124 deaths as of Monday, official data showed.
It is a warning to different components of Asia which might be additionally making an attempt this elimination technique, it isn’t essentially sustainable in the long run.
Benjamin Cowling
College of Hong Kong’s College of Public Well being
Cowling mentioned Taiwan will discover it troublesome to manage the newest outbreak. Authorities may have stricter social distancing measures provided that testing capability hasn’t ramped up sufficient and the island’s vaccination progress has been sluggish, he added.
“It is a warning to different components of Asia which might be additionally making an attempt this elimination technique, it isn’t essentially sustainable in the long run,” mentioned the professor.
Asian economies have usually proven a decrease tolerance for Covid infections in comparison with its friends in different areas.
Governments in Hong Kong and Singapore, for instance, have been fast to tighten measures to stem out small upticks in instances. In the meantime, international locations such because the U.S. and U.Okay. are nonetheless reporting hundreds of every day instances, however faster vaccination has allowed the international locations to roll again restrictions.
Like a lot of its regional friends in Asia, Taiwan has confronted challenges securing Covid vaccines, mentioned Cowling. A part of Taiwan’s hurdle is politics, mentioned the professor.
Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen mentioned in a Facebook post final week that the federal government has bought vaccines developed by AstraZeneca and Moderna. She accused China of blocking a cope with Germany’s BioNTech, which has co-developed a vaccine with U.S. pharmaceutical Pfizer.
Beijing has denied Tsai’s accusation.
China claims Taiwan as a runaway province that should in the future be reunited with the mainland — utilizing power if needed. The Chinese language Communist Get together has by no means ruled Taiwan, which is a democratic self-ruled island.
“There’s a variety of politics concerned in getting vaccines to Taiwan,” mentioned Cowling. “I feel they will have the ability to do it, however they will not have the ability to vaccinate sufficient individuals proper now to cease the present outbreak, they should use social distancing, lockdowns to cope with this.”
